Analysis & Predictions: Pavlovich vs Aspinall 11/11/2023

Analysis & Predictions: Pavlovich vs Aspinall 11/11/2023

November 10, 2023


Fight Preview


On Saturday night in New York City, Ultimate Fighting Championship will present an action-packed event at Madison Square Garden with Sergei Pavlovich taking on Tom Aspinall as headlining act in a heavyweight bout for an interim title bout arranged on short notice due to Jon Jones’ injury, forcing them out of their scheduled title defense against Miocic. Both fighters quickly accepted this opportunity for competition for this interim crown title fight.


Aspinall may not be well known, but the British fighter has recently been on an impressive streak, scoring six first round finishes in the UFC. A pressure fighter with great lateral movement, athleticism and grappling abilities he also holds an edge on grappling opponents like Pavlovich who were taken down via guillotine choke in their debut fight but since have made significant improvements on the ground; his reach extends far and he averages 8.72 significant strikes per minute with 49 percent strike accuracy in punches per minute averaged significant strikes per minute with 49 percent strike accuracy when punches land.


Aspinall remains an underdog against Pavlovich, due to his incredible recent run and Pavlovich’s considerable advantage in striking. However, Aspinall has shown great strides forward with his bottom game skills; taking down Pavlovich may prove pivotal.



Aspinall and Pavlovich came forward with great respect to compete in this fight on short notice, appearing pristine at Thursday’s press conference. Both fighters exchanged greetings before taking photos ahead of their bout. Both fighters are relatively young for Heavyweight competition, which may not bode well. That could indicate they haven’t hit their peak and still have much work ahead of them. Yet it is evident both have great potential to succeed at being standouts in this division.


Aspinall will likely find Sergei Pavlovich an intriguing opponent. With his powerful punching style and lengthy reach, Sergei is capable of stunning opponents from any spot within the octagon – his length and reach advantage give him an enormous edge on feet, and his unmatched power may even end this fight with one blow if it lands early; otherwise Aspinall can use speed and movement to control proceedings, then use his lateral movement against Pavlovich before taking him down for takedown and finishing it himself. As both competitors are very evenly matched in skill level and experience, this could lead to an intense match that could come down to the last few rounds.


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Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall Fight Information


  • Date: 11/11/2023
  • Time: 10:50 PM ET
  • Location: Madison Square Garden.
  • How to Watch Pavlovich vs Aspinall: ESPN+
  • Live Stream: BT


Watch the Full Show Here