Picks & Analysis: Lopes vs Sabatini 11/11/2023

Picks & Analysis: Lopes vs Sabatini 11/11/2023

November 10, 2023


Fight Preview


UFC 295 features a featherweight battle between Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Both fighters have shown great promise since joining the roster this year; Lopes in particular making an impressionful debut against Movsar Evloev at UFC 288. Sabatini too brings high-level grappling games which has proven difficult for opponents to stop.


Lopes and Sabatini both possess effective submission styles on the ground, but Lopes stands out with his dynamic striking. His strong right hand from an orthodox stance provides heavy counter shots when opponents mistakenly shoot into his guard. Lopes is also an adept wrestler and will try to pressure Sabatini from above in an effort to force takedowns.


Lopes has demonstrated amazing acrobatic footwork on his way to becoming one of the premier middleweight boxers today. Utilizing his long reach to keep opponents at a distance, his striking can sometimes be reckless and need improvement, so focus on hitting opponents directly in the pocket or staying off of their back foot to maximize striking power and improve timing and accuracy.



Lopes shines when fighting on the mat, constantly looking for ways to tilt the fight his way and engage his opponent’s defense with quick transitions and ground and pound. His only real weakness from bottom position comes in that he doesn’t always follow through with finishing attacks, something which may become costly against more skilled opponents in this fight.


Sabatini is a much more accomplished grappler on average and will look to exert his will upon this fight. He averages 1.95 strikes landed and absorbed per minute in the Octagon, and was successful against Lucas Almeida when wrestling him in their last outing. Furthermore, he averages 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 46% success rate and attempts an average of 1.9 submission attempts per outing.


Both fighters have much to prove in this matchup and the winner may move closer to cracking the top five spot in their division. Lopes stands a chance at becoming a future UFC superstar with his high-energy style and entertaining in-fight entertainment, but Sabatini should not be underestimated as he boasts proven skills that can win this fight.


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Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini Fight Information


  • Date: 11/11/2023
  • Time: 09:35 PM ET
  • Location: Madison Square Garden.
  • How to Watch Lopes vs Sabatini: ESPN+
  • Live Stream: BT Sport.com


Watch the Full Show Here